{"comments":{"1179576":{"pb_id":"43675","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179576","comment_id":"1179576","member_id":"43675","comment":"
<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>cerutty fan, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>dkap, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>DrBob, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>DrBob, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>King999, on , said:<\/p>
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\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
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\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
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\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?
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\nAlso agree ... But it got me to thinking (and doing some looking) ... How do we know Grant Fisher has not pushed it all season, or at least pushed it once??
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\nFisher did run the 3rd fastest time ever (14:52.5) at the Michigan State course which has been used since 1996 ... I can understand not over-extending yourself trying to break Dathan Ritzenhein's course record (14:10.4) since that mark is one of the premier performances in high school XC history ... I assume Fisher's 14:52.5 time took some effort, but I have no idea how much.
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\nI would make Grant Fisher the favorite in any high school XC race held tomorrow ... But I would not rank him above guys he has not beaten this season when those guys have turned in better XC performances .... I would give Grant Fisher the benefit-of-the-doubt in current ranking IF he was in the same position as Edward Cheserek as a HS senior ... As a junior, Cheserek turned in multiple XC performances at higher level than any of his senior-year competition ... That's not the case with Fisher ... I could understand ranking Fisher #1 right now if considering a combination of XC and track, but this is 2014 XC ranking.
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\nDefinitely looking forward to this weekend's NXN and Footlocker regional races ... Bowdoin Park is expecting 4-8 inches of snow from Wed-Thur!!","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:21pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Bill Meylan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43675","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Bill-Meylan.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1073444"},"1179575":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179575","comment_id":"1179575","member_id":"9184","comment":"I hate to say it, but I think you're being inconsistent and losing your way in the analysis now. You just transitioned from it being a ranking of what they've done this year and not a prediction, to basically a prediction rationalizing away what they've done on the basis of what they're saving themselves for.
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\nDan","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:07pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1179572":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179572","comment_id":"1179572","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\n
\nMaybe. I don't know how much you can really tell about an athlete just by how they treat an all star event. I do think it's possible that Dressel felt like he had more to prove, which is reason enough to go for the win. My only point, though, was that the results of this event probably shouldn't play that big of a role in the rankings, so it isn't very interesting (to me) to see what "rankings aftermath" might befall the runners that were involved.
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\nNow, the following here is only my take on some of the potential scenarios befitting the top WA\/OR guys and how they might view the event:
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\nQualifying for the race is the main achievement - it's recognition that you are among the top 40 (or so) runners in the state. To go along with that achievement, you get to visit Nike HQ, get some swag and run on a race at the Nike Campus with a very unique start and add to the state rivalry. For the guys eyeing national accolades, that's the real prize over the weekend.
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\nWinning BorderClash is obviously great, but if you're looking at running well at NXN or FLN, it might not really be that big of a priority:
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\nfor a WA runner going the NXN route, BorderClash would be the third (or fourth, if you pushed it at your state qualifying meet) all out race in as many weeks and you'll only have one week to rest before the season finale (NXN Nationals). I think most kids would like to win every race, but some probably prioritize one over the other - with that "one" generally being the national race rather than the state rivalry as that is the bigger stage and better field. That's definitely what you saw with Wilmot and Anderson last year (they didn't rush to the front, and didn't make their usual big mid-race moves but rather were content running mid-pack through the first half the race and then move up towards the front of the chase pack - ~20 seconds behind the leaders - during the latter part of the third km before letting loose a bit over the last half mile).
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\nfor an OR runner going the NXN route, you had a week rest in between state and NXR so it's not as big of a deal - it wouldn't be a total of 4 hard races in 5 weeks, but rather 4 in 6... still might not push it, but there are more that would than in Washington's case.
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\nfor a WA runner going the FLN route and skipping NXR, you already had a week's rest between state and this meet so you might be more apt to push it. That's what you saw with Dressel and probably Hardy last year (for those that don't remember, Dressel opened up a BIG lead early on, Maton reeled him mid-race and Hardy was a little off them, but those three were well clear of the rest of the pack).
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\nfor an OR runner going the FLN route and skipping NXR, you've had 2 weeks rest since state and another week off following this race, so unless you're training through the race you don't need to worry too much about holding back. That's what you saw with Maton last year.
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\nFor runners from either state that run NXR and plan to run FLW instead of NXN, that's yet another race thrown into the mix beyond the rest of the guys - all the more reason to not gun it at BC.
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\nFor the very top guys (like Maton, Anderson, Dressel, and last year Hardy and Wilmot), I think their eyes are on the national prize, not the BorderClash individual title. If they feel their ultimate goal is best served by not gunning it at BorderClash (which is what the NC guys have done pretty much every year), I think that's perfectly fine - they have bigger fish to fry.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 3:55pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179566":{"pb_id":"50627","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179566","comment_id":"1179566","member_id":"50627","comment":"
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\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
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\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
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\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?
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\nAgreed, but it tells me that Anderson and Maton don't mind losing if it means they can be buddy-buddy with their colleagues whereas Dressel is not OK with losing ever, just like Fisher. It doesn't tell me that Dressel is more fit than either Maton or Anderson, but it does tell me that Dressel and Fisher have a certain alpha-male characteristic that the other two don't. You can't instill that. We'll have to wait to see how that plays out at FL and in college.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 3:35pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"cerutty fan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=50627","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=50627","pb_wally_id":"1212787"},"1179561":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179561","comment_id":"1179561","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\nDan
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\nWhile I think Fisher has a good argument for #1, that is a different argument than what happened at BorderClash.
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\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
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\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
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\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 2:48pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179472":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179472","comment_id":"1179472","member_id":"9184","comment":"
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\nCouldn't the same be said of Grant Fisher biding his time all season long? IMO, the precedent has been set: You have to rank people on the outcome of the races, not the reason for those outcomes.
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\nDan","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 6:32am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1179467":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179467","comment_id":"1179467","member_id":"5929","comment":"
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\nI bet it would be interesting for Dressel Beat #1 and #2 in the country, is he still at #6?","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:36am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1179061":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179061","comment_id":"1179061","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\nI don't see why it would be that interesting to see rankings after a meet that 2 of the 3 obviously didn't care about - doesn't exactly say much about how good or deserving they are.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 1:40am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1178850":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1178850","comment_id":"1178850","member_id":"5929","comment":"It's probably good the next rankings aren't due out until after next weekend. Dressel's win over the higher ranked guy's and the line of reasoning would certainly make it interesting. After watching the race video, it was obvious that with less than 400 to go, it was going to be a walk across the line kind of effort but that quickly changed at some point as it should if we want the Clash to be taken seriously when it's a team oriented competition.","date_added":"Nov 24th 2014, 1:56pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1177605":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177605","comment_id":"1177605","member_id":"45158","comment":"
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\nThe only thing Grant could have done differently is move
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\nMaybe Tanner Anderson and\/or John Dressel should've moved out of Spokane and maybe the Pacific NW so they could've been undefeated
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\nIt's just a ranking of 2014 xc accomplishments, Doug isn't saying that Fisher WILL be 4th (or 3rd at FL). You and I (and most people realize) that IF Footlocker comes down to a kick that Fisher will LIKELY win. But if somebody has just a bit more of a lead than Dressel had last year that could be all that is needed.","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 8:10pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"1177601":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177601","comment_id":"1177601","member_id":"45158","comment":"Don't people get it? THESE RANKINGS ON HERE AREN'T PREDICTIONS!!!
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\nDougB isn't saying if the top 100 runners race that he is positive that he knows the exact order of the top 30 ... heck, he isn't even saying that he believes he knows. In fact his top 30 order may likely go against everything he knows about running and everything his gut tells him.
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\nAll the top 30 represents is a list of good runners somewhat ranked in order of accomplishments they've done this year, especially most recently.
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\nMy list never agrees 100% with Doug and Rob but I GREATLY appreciate that they post theirs weekly for our entertainment and education. We learn some from them and I'm sure they also learn from our perspectives as well.","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 7:58pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"1177555":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177555","comment_id":"1177555","member_id":"5929","comment":"So, if Grant is ranked 4th and there at least 3 other guys ahead of him, just how does he get beat? Is it early in the race, mid-race, or in a kick to the finish? Some would also say there's no reason for Fisher to throw down huge races until they matter, thus helping his chances of actually getting a chance to prove his worth much like he has done since he burst onto the scene years ago and became the State Champion, Foot Locker Champion, Gatorade XC Runner of the Year, Dream Mile Champion and World Youth and Junior Qualifier.
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\nThe only thing Grant could have done differently is move ","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 6:38pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1176840":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176840","comment_id":"1176840","member_id":"9184","comment":"It's similar to the team rankings, where Summit's boys are near the top despite the fact they won't have Maton for NXN. In both cases, the rank is based on what has been done so far this season, not what might happen once a few variables are changed. I personally feel you never discount a defending champ, but I also think both sides of the argument are equally valid and the rankings approach is consistent.
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\nDan","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 8:23pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1176778":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"1","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176778","comment_id":"1176778","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\nYou have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.
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\nIf he tanked at Regions? Maybe.
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\nBut, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.
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\nAnd I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?
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\nI can definitely see both sides of the argument. Essentially, this is a +1 to Meylan's post, as I find little to disagree with his points (aside from maybe pointing out that Dressel is at least as fast as last year, since he mentioned the rest of the top FLN returners being faster as well). It's late in the 2014 season, there are other undefeated runners out there - all who are running well - and others who have been beaten but have still been running better than Fisher. IMO, there are 8 guys with legitimate cases for US#1 (Ostberg, Maton, Anderson, Fisher, Hacker, Hunter Tamagno and Reiser). Plus another (Mantz) if he returns to his mid-season form. That's not to say those guys are the top 8\/9 in the nation - guys like Dressel, Pollard, Millar, Brannigan, Roberts, Thomet, Alhamra, Khosla and maybe even a couple others can all challenge for a Top-5 finish.
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\nJust because Fisher won FLN last year, and hasn't faced anyone yet (or gone all-out yet) doesn't mean he HAS to be ranked US#1. He's never beaten Anderson, he barely beat Dressel at FLN, and he wasn't head and shoulders above everyone in track (though he was the best distance guy in track, just not by some absurd margin that the rest of the nation couldn't overcome with a better summer\/fall of training). COULD he be US#1? Of course - he's undefeated and won FLN last year. But others have done all they can to earn that US#1 spot as well, and you can't deny credit to them just because Fisher hasn't raced anyone.","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 6:47pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1176705":{"pb_id":"68733","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176705","comment_id":"1176705","member_id":"68733","comment":"Bill, I have a great respect for what you guys do , but in this case this is a HUGE NO Way, No How, sorry.
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\nYou have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.
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\nIf he tanked at Regions? Maybe.
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\nBut, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.
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\nAnd I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 5:30pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"King999","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=68733","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/King999.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1493915"},"1176631":{"pb_id":"43675","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176631","comment_id":"1176631","member_id":"43675","comment":"